A fair card break spot price is the expected hit value for that team multiplied by the realistic hit probability, minus break fees and a risk buffer. Most card break spots run 20 to 50 percent over box cost, with the markup loaded onto the hottest teams. To know if a spot is fair, run the expected-value math before you click Buy.
The MaxBid AI break spot formula: Max Team Spot = Expected Hit Value times Hit Probability, minus break fees, minus 10 to 15 percent risk buffer.
Multiply the expected hit value for the team by the realistic hit probability, subtract break fees and a 10 to 15 percent risk buffer. If the spot price is above that number, the break is overpriced for that team.
Breakers load markup onto hot teams because demand concentrates there. The hot team subsidizes the dead team spots in the same break. Before buying, check if the hot team's expected value justifies the premium.
Always run the expected-value math: hit value times hit probability minus fees minus risk buffer. If you can't estimate hit probability or resale value, you don't have enough data to calculate a rational max spot price.